a hero call attempt

Hey there all, I had a few busy days so I couldn't play as much as I want. I won around 1500 € lately but I played only one interesting hand. I am going to post that hand down and comment on it.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3621734

This hand occurred only a few hands after he sat down at my table. But in the previous hands I saw a very action seeking regular inside of him. He reraised a few hands and played his hands in a very aggressive but still reasonable way. In this specific hand when he raised me on flop I knew that he didn't have an A unless an AT because he would flat call any A here to be able to get more bets in later streets with good kickers and to control the pot with bad kickers and I don't think A4 is in his cold calling range from CO. so his range seems like a range of 20% in which AT and 44 constitute the %5 of it (0,5 % for 44 and 0,5 % for AT as I am holding a T in my hand). I think he is going to play any flush draw he is holding this way so the spades constitute the 10% of his entire range) I suppose he would make this play one third of the time with the rest of his range (85%). Therefore when I face the raise on flop his airs constitute the 85% /3 of it which is around 28% and the rest is divided between his flush draws and made hands (72%). We can deduct that only 24% of his raise range here belongs to a made hand. I think it's totally fine to make this call on the flop.

When he bets the turn I think he is going to continue his bluffs half ot the time and he is going to bet again with his flush draw half of the time and he is going to get a free the other half of the time. Therefore when he bets again on the turn 28 % + 48 % of his range became 14 % + 24 % of new betting range and the rest of the betting range belongs to made hands which is 62 %.

Finally on the river I don't think he would check down any hand he bet the turn including his made hands, draws and airs. My plan was to fold the river if a flush card hits (even T or Q of spades, because they don't change anything against his possible range) Therefore now he is bluffing 1/3 of the time and value bettin 2/3 of the time which is good for calling a pot sized bet.

In overall, this may seem a very high variance call and I don't tend to do calls like this even if I believe they are slightly + EV. But if it's a -EV play it has the tilting effect when you win the hand. I made him pay my later hands so it has been a contribution for the metagame.

Take care all, I'm waiting comments about this hand.